May 22, 2025
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Let’s cut right to the chase: most premeds don’t get accepted into medical school. The average applicant applies to 25 schools and gets rejected from all of them. Sounds scary. Until you know the other side: nearly 23,000 people do get accepted every single year.
This guide is here to show you the real numbers. You’ll see acceptance rates by school, race, major, MCAT, GPA, and in-state status. You’ll learn where you actually stand, what metrics matter most, and how to stop wasting time on schools that were never going to say yes.
And if you want someone in your corner who knows exactly how to turn these numbers in your favor, that’s where Premed Catalyst comes in. We pair you with mentors who’ve already done what you’re trying to do—get in. Our mentorship and application advising helped 100% of our on-time applicants get accepted in the 2024–2025 cycle.
Book a free strategy session before our spots fill up.
In 2024, the national acceptance rate across MD and DO programs was around 44–45%. That means more than half of applicants—after years of grinding, shadowing, volunteering, and rewriting personal statements—still got rejected.
But don’t give up just yet. That 44% figure is the overall rate. When you break it down by application type, the numbers tell a more specific story.
The MD pathway is competitive, yes—but not impossible. In fact, acceptance rates have been climbing slightly, with 2024 showing the strongest numbers in years. That’s encouraging for anyone applying in the next cycle.
DO programs continue to grow, offering more seats and more opportunity. If you’re open to both MD and DO schools, your chances of acceptance nearly double.
Let’s talk about the number that floats around: 60% of premeds don’t get in anywhere.
Sounds terrifying, right? You’ve probably seen it quoted on Reddit, Student Doctor Network, or even on our own Premed Catalyst website. And, technically, it’s true. Over the past three years, 165,326 students applied to med school, and 69,228 got in. That’s a 41.9% acceptance rate. Meaning 58.1% didn’t make it.
But here’s the truth no one tells you: that 60% figure doesn’t apply to everyone equally. It’s a blanket number, but your chances aren’t blanket—they’re personal. They depend on your stats, your story, and how you apply.
Take this example:
Let’s say you have a GPA > 3.79 and an MCAT > 517—like Mike, our co-founder. Over the last three cycles, 12,843 applicants fit that exact profile. Of those, 10,645 were accepted. That’s an 82.9% acceptance rate—a far cry from the scary 41.9% national average.
Still, 1 in 6 students with those “perfect” stats didn’t get in anywhere. So yes, even elite numbers don’t guarantee you anything.
That means when you see the post saying, “4.0 GPA, 527 MCAT, research, leadership, published—rejected everywhere,” that’s real, but it’s more rare than you think. What you’re seeing is inverse survivorship bias: the loudest stories online are the scariest ones. No one posts: “Hey, I got into four schools. Here's my calm, non-dramatic update.”
One of the biggest mistakes premeds make is assuming their odds are the same at every school they apply to.
But the truth? Your chances change dramatically depending on where you apply. Some schools accept over 30% of applicants. Others take less than 2%. And this has nothing to do with “top 10” rankings—it’s about location, mission, applicant volume, and how well you fit their priorities.
Let’s look at the actual data.
Note: Acceptance rates are approximated using publicly available data from AAMC, AACOM, or program-specific reports. Numbers may vary slightly from year to year.
As you can see, there’s no “average” school. Some med schools have tiny class sizes and massive application volume (think: UC schools, mid-tier private programs). Others have strong regional missions and give massive boosts to in-state applicants.
This is why blindly applying to 30 “good” schools isn’t a strategy. It’s a lottery.
Want to go more in depth on your target schools? Explore our guides below to see acceptance data, strategic insights, and what it really takes to get in.
University of California Irvine
Albert Einstein College of Medicine
University of Rochester School of Medicine
UC Riverside School of Medicine
UC San Diego School of Medicine
Here’s something most people won’t tell you: you’re not powerless against acceptance rates. Every applicant walks into this process with a set of factors—some in your control, some not—that influence how your application is received.
This section breaks down the biggest levers you can use (or need to understand) to shift the odds in your favor.
There’s no sugarcoating it—your GPA and MCAT score are the first filters schools use. Before anyone reads your essays, before your shadowing hours matter, your stats decide if you make it through the first cut.
Here’s what the AAMC data shows about how GPA and MCAT combine to affect acceptance odds:
Allopathic (MD) Applicants: Acceptance Rate by GPA and MCAT (2024)
What this means: Even with a lower GPA, a strong MCAT can push you into a much higher bracket. And vice versa.
Short answer: no—your major doesn’t influence your chances of acceptance as long as you do well.
Long answer: Your major doesn’t matter for content—med schools don’t require a specific one—but it does matter for context. A 3.8 in biology is solid and expected. A 3.8 in math or philosophy might stand out more because it’s less common and may signal stronger analytical or critical thinking skills—if the rest of your app shows you’re serious about medicine.
What this means: Major in something you love and can thrive in. Med schools don’t care what your diploma says—they care that you excelled and built a compelling, cohesive narrative from your experiences.
Your identity should never be a disadvantage, but we have to acknowledge what the data shows so you know what you’re up against. Below is data based on AAMC reports for allopathic applicants in the 2024–2025 cycle.
Acceptance Rates by Race/Ethnicity
Acceptance Rates by Gender
What this means: These numbers aren’t destiny. They’re just context. Use them to understand where you sit in the broader pool and focus on what you can control: excellence, authenticity, and a cohesive narrative.
Some schools give massive preference to in-state applicants. And for public schools, that’s not favoritism—it’s policy. They’re funded to train physicians for their state. That means if you’re local, your odds can double, triple, even quadruple.
Examples: In-State vs. Out-of-State Acceptance Rates
What this means: If your state has a medical school you align with, be sure to apply there. In-state residency is one of the few built-in advantages in this process. Don’t waste it.
The med school landscape you’re walking into is not the same one from five years ago. The rules are shifting, the applicant pool is evolving, and the process is reacting to forces way beyond your GPA and MCAT.
Understanding these trends isn’t just interesting—it’s strategic. It helps you adapt, stand out, and avoid outdated advice.
After a surge in applications during the pandemic (a phenomenon dubbed “The Fauci Effect”), application numbers are now leveling off. Meanwhile, new med schools and expanded class sizes have created more seats.
What this means: Yes, it’s still hard, but there’s more opportunity now than during the post-COVID spike. If you’re applying soon, you’re walking into one of the most applicant-friendly cycles in recent years.
More med schools have opened in the past 10 years than in the two decades before. That means more first-year seats and more pathways in.
New U.S. Medical Schools Opened by Year (2015–2024)
Total: 14 new schools opened between 2015–2024 (8 DO, 6 MD)
What this means: The system is expanding, especially in the DO space. That doesn’t guarantee admission, but it does give you more options if you’re applying broadly and strategically.
In 2023, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down race-conscious admissions policies. The AAMC predicted a chilling effect, and they were right. Early data suggests a dip in URiM (Underrepresented in Medicine) matriculants at many schools.
What this means: If you’re from an underrepresented background, this may be a tougher climate, but many schools are doubling down on holistic review and mission-fit. If your story reflects resilience, community impact, or a unique journey, you need to make that shine.
More students are opting out of medicine altogether, discouraged by stories of burnout, bureaucracy, and declining work-life balance. Ironically, this has created regional shortages of competitive applicants, especially at state schools in the Midwest and South.
Total MD Applicants by Region (2023–2024 Cycle)
What this means: If you’re open to geography, you can target less-saturated regions with more favorable odds.
You didn’t read this far just to feel more informed. You did it because you want to get in. The data matters, but only if you do something with it.
Every number you’ve seen—every trend, rate, and ratio—is a tool. Not a wall. The question now is how you use those tools to build an application that rises above the noise. We break that down below:
You already know the numbers: most premeds don’t get in. Not because they didn’t care. But because they didn’t know what mattered or how to create a winning strategy.
At Premed Catalyst, we don’t hand you vague advice and wish you luck. We mentor you like your future depends on it—because it does. You get mentorship and application advising from people who’ve actually gotten into med school and have already helped others do the same.
Book your free strategy session now. Let’s make sure you’re part of the 40% that get accepted.