August 5, 2025
Written By
Michael Minh Le
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You’ve put in the work: GPA, MCAT, research, volunteering. Still, you’re not sure if you’re actually competitive. The vague advice and scattered resources online haven’t helped. What you really want is clarity about your chances of getting in.
That’s why we created something that helps you calculate your odds.
Below, we’ll break down exactly how our Med School Chance Predictor works, what it measures, and when you need to stop relying on numbers alone and go beyond the calculator.
The calculator is helpful, but another good way to know how competitive you are is to compare your app to ones that earned real acceptances. We created our Application Database that gives you access to 8 full AMCAS applications that earned acceptances at top med schools like UCLA and UCI. And we’ve made it completely free.
Get your free resource here.
We built this calculator to give you what most premeds never get: real, data-backed context.
Here’s how it works.
You’ll enter your:
In seconds, the calculator does the heavy lifting. It compares your numbers to national averages and best-practice benchmarks for clinical hours so you can see how competitive you really are for MD programs in the US.
Then it goes one step further: it shows you how your stats stack up against accepted student profiles at every med school. That means you’ll get a list of schools where you actually have a shot.
No more wondering if you're “good enough.” No more scouring Google for hours trying to figure out which schools align with your numbers. Our calculator gives you the brutal truth on whether or not you’re competitive, all based on your specific numbers.
Disclaimer: Based on AAMC data + internal data. The data is descriptive, not causative. The correct interpretation is, for example: “Approximately 77% of premeds with this profile have gotten into at least one med school,” NOT “I have a 77% chance of getting into UCLA.”
Let’s break down the different tiers our calculator will sort you into.
These tiers are based on your estimated highest acceptance chance. They’re not predictions; they’re signals of how strong your stats and experiences look compared to successful applicants.
Here's what they mean for your next move:
Meaning: You’re in the rare zone. Your GPA/MCAT plus experiences make you look like the most elite applicant.
Interpretation: No one is guaranteed anything, but you’re running in the same lane as the top quartile of accepted students. If the rest of your app holds up, you have leverage. T20s are not just possible. They’re realistic.
Meaning: Highly competitive.
Interpretation: You’re above average across the board. With a smart school list and solid timing, you’re positioned for multiple MD acceptances. This is the zone where most first-time successful applicants live.
Meaning: You’re in the solid middle ground.
Interpretation: You’ll need to be strategic. A well-balanced list and strong secondaries can get you interviews and acceptances, but don’t bank on the top schools. Here, effort and planning make the difference.
Meaning: You’re still in the game, just not in a strong position yet.
Interpretation: Most reapplicants come from here. One or two weak spots are holding you back (maybe MCAT, clinical hours, or leadership). Fix those, and your next cycle could look very different.
Meaning: Your profile has noticeable weaknesses.
Interpretation: You’re still trying, and that’s powerful. But right now, you’re outmatched by most MD applicants. Reinforcement (e.g., retake the MCAT, add DO schools, double your clinical hours) is necessary before you can expect an acceptance.
Meaning: You’re not there yet.
Interpretation: This doesn’t mean the dream is dead. It means now’s the time to pivot. A postbac. An SMP. A gap year with a new MCAT plan. Or lean into DO schools if you’re open to that route. Reinvention is strategy, and it’s smart.
The truth is, med school admissions isn’t just about numbers. It’s about narrative. Your stats get you looked at. Your story gets you remembered.
So once you’ve used the calculator and seen your potential odds based on your numbers, the next step is to build the application that brings it all to life. That’s what our application advising is all about: helping you craft a story that resonates beyond your stats.
The Med School Chance Predictor is your starting line. The real magic? That happens when you start building the version of your application that no one else can copy.
Ready to go beyond the numbers?
Book a free call to see if you qualify.
