September 29, 2025
Written By
Michael Minh Le
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Every premed, at some point, is trying to figure out just how many people apply to medical school each year. Because when you’ve heard that the number is in the thousands, it can start to feel like the odds are stacked against you.
In this article, we’ll walk you through exactly how many people apply to medical school each year, what’s been driving the recent surges and slumps, and how the recent changes are affecting your chances. And, most importantly, we’ll break down what makes applicants stand out beyond just numbers.
If you want to see exactly what made real applicants stand out, at Premed Catalyst, we pulled together 8 real AMCAS applications that got students accepted to top med schools like UCLA and UCI. And we made it completely free. Use this access to reverse engineer what works.
Get your free resource here.
Every year, tens of thousands of students throw their hat in the ring for a shot at medical school, and most don’t get in. There’s limited seats after all.
So, let’s break down exactly what you’re up against.
In the 2022–2023 cycle, 55,188 people applied to U.S. MD‑granting medical schools.
Out of those, 22,712 matriculated (i.e., enrolled), which means about 41.2 % of applicants secured a seat.
That ~41–42 % “get in” rate basically means for every 10 people who apply, fewer than five actually make it in.
What’s behind these numbers? It hasn’t just been about GPA and MCAT scores. Cultural shifts, court rulings, and social media have all played a role in application surges and slumps.
Let’s break down the three key trends that have shaped the med school applicant pool most recently.
In 2020 and 2021, the world turned its eyes to science, and many students turned their eyes to medicine. During the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, physicians became front-page heroes. Anthony Fauci became a household name. Medicine felt urgent, meaningful, and in the spotlight.
This cultural moment sparked what many called the “Fauci Effect”: a surge of applications from students inspired to be part of something bigger than themselves.
The numbers backed it up. Applications jumped nearly 18% in a single year, hitting over 62,000 in the 2020–2021 cycle.
But that surge didn’t last.
Once the adrenaline wore off, reality kicked in. TikTok and Instagram started showing a different side of medicine, not the drama of emergency rooms, but the bureaucracy, burnout, and brutal hours that many healthcare workers quietly endure.
Young premeds started hearing from real residents about 28-hour calls, soul-sucking paperwork, and a system that often feels broken. The luster faded.
By 2022, applications dropped from 62,443 in 2021 to 55,188. That’s a sharp 11.6% decline in a single year. The dip continued in 2023, falling again to 52,577. Medicine is still viewed as a noble path, but the next wave of students is less enchanted.
Another major shift came in 2023, when the Supreme Court struck down affirmative action in college admissions. While the ruling focused on undergraduate institutions, its ripple effects reached med schools almost immediately.
For URiM (Underrepresented in Medicine) applicants, this ruling introduced more than just uncertainty. It’s already reshaping outcomes. In the 2024 application cycle, the first full year under the new legal rules, URiM acceptance and matriculation rates declined compared to the 2019–2023 average.
Meanwhile, acceptance rates increased for White and Asian applicants. Schools in states that hadn’t previously banned affirmative action saw the biggest drop in URiM matriculants.
Below is a picture of who’s in the applicant pool today, not just in terms of stats, but identity and background. These are the people you’re applying against.
For the sixth year in a row, women now make up the majority of both applicants and matriculants. In 2024‑25, women accounted for 56.8 % of applicants and 55.1 % of matriculants.
This is not a sudden change. Over the past decade, the gender balance has gradually shifted from male dominance toward parity and now a female majority.
Understanding URiM trends is complex, especially after the 2023 Supreme Court change, but here’s what current data shows:
The applicant pool is not just 22‑year-olds straight out of college. Some shifts include:
Getting a seat in medical school isn’t just about submitting an application. It’s about how strong every component is, and how well your overall story fits together.
Here’s what the numbers show, and how to use them to stand out.
For most med schools, academics are the first major filter.
In the 2022–2023 cycle, matriculants had an average MCAT score of 511.9, with GPA averages hovering between 3.7 and 3.8 depending on the breakdown of science vs. non-science courses.
That’s the academic bar. It doesn’t mean a 511 and a 3.75 will get you in. But it does mean those are the starting point for most successful applicants.
And here’s what most premeds miss: numbers get you through the door, but it’s the story, the substance, and the signal you send with the rest of your application that gets you invited to stay.
Clinical hours, research, leadership, shadowing. They’re all important. But let’s be clear: this isn’t a checklist game.
AdComs aren’t just counting how many hours you logged in a hospital or lab just for the sake of hours. They’re looking for purpose, depth, and a clear connection between what you did and the doctor you say you want to become.
Yes, most successful applicants have hundreds of hours of clinical exposure volunteering in hospitals, working as scribes, and shadowing doctors. But what makes those hours stand out isn’t the total. It’s the why behind them. Too many students obsess over hitting a magic number and end up with a scattershot list of disconnected experiences.
What matters more is whether your clinical and non-clinical work all point to a consistent story. If you say you care about underserved communities, then your clinic work, your volunteer time, your research, all of it, should reflect that theme.
And you’ll need to communicate this theme in every part of your application, from your personal statement to your secondary essays, letters of recommendation, and interview.
Here’s something that doesn’t get enough attention: there are more seats in medical school than ever before.
Between new schools opening and existing ones expanding their class sizes, getting into med school isn’t quite the same numbers game it used to be.
In the 2024–2025 academic year, the U.S. hit an all-time high: nearly 100,000 students enrolled across MD and DO programs.
So, why exactly are there more seats opening up?
1. New medical schools are launching every year.
In the past two decades, dozens of MD and DO programs have opened across the country, with many in regions historically underserved by healthcare. These new schools are designed to meet growing physician shortages and serve more diverse communities. And every new school means a new class of 50, 100, or 150+ students entering the pipeline.
2. Existing schools are increasing their class sizes.
To keep up with national demand, many med schools, especially state-funded ones, have steadily expanded the number of students they admit. From 2002 to 2023, total med school enrollment grew by nearly 40%, adding tens of thousands of new seats. That means schools that used to admit 100 may now admit 130 or 150, dramatically increasing overall capacity.
So, does this mean it's easier to get in?
Not exactly.
More seats sounds like less competition, but the truth is more nuanced. Here’s why:
Let’s not sugarcoat it: most people who apply to medical school get rejected.
In the 2022–2023 cycle, only 41.2% of applicants matriculated. That means more than half, over 32,000 students, put in the time, paid the fees, submitted secondaries, maybe even interviewed, and didn’t get in.
Some regroup and reapply. Some pivot to DO schools. Some shift careers entirely.
If you're serious about getting in, you have to out-strategize, not just outwork. It’s not enough to grind through your prereqs, volunteer, and hope your numbers are “good enough.” This process rewards clarity, intentionality, and storytelling just as much as GPA and MCAT scores.
If strategy is what separates those who get in from those who don’t, then the best way to sharpen yours is by learning from people who made it.
That’s why at Premed Catalyst, we created an Application Database that gives you free access to 8 real AMCAS applications that earned acceptances to top programs like UCLA and UCI. See how they successfully told their story, so you can do the same.
Get your free resource here.
